The Right to Govern

What an interesting time in Australian politics as we wait for a tangible outcome of our recent General Election. It has been a bit quieter on the political conjecture stage these days as it has become clear that the independents will not be rushed into commitments to one major party or another. It has also become clear that many of the wilder suggestions of repeating the election immediately and the like are just not likely to happen.

So where are we now?

Julia Gillard is still the Prime Minister and to that extent she holds the trump card over Tony Abbott. She can afford to allow as long as it takes to get a commitment from the cross-benches not to support a no-confidence motion. We are all left wondering what inducements she might be able to offer as pursuasion to make this commitment. Wayne Swan has ruled out the option of offering ministerial responsibility to any; and I doubt any of them would relinquish their right to vote on the things they are passionate about by offering to become Speaker - despite the huge salary that goes with it.

Tony Abbott on the other hand has the unenviable task of enticing back into the fold people who have already left conservative ranks, generally burnuing bridges behind them. The evidence of these burnt bridges is no further away than the daily allegations of some member of Tony's team making a call to abuse an independent in some way or another. Declarations that they were joking or meant to say another word don't ring true because of the previous form of the utterers.

While I agree that the Labor Party has squandered its mandate to govern, when the votes of the Greens are added to theirs in both houses the combined vote is more than mandatory. Even if just 30% of the Greens voters were there because of dissaffection with the Labor Party they still have more of a mandate than the coalition has.

I look forward to seeing what is worked out, but I dearly hope that Julia Gillard is able to put it all together. Given Tony Abbott's form on so many social policy issues and the size of his ego I think he would be unsquashable in power.